Raceday focus: Best bets for Warwick Farm

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The David Pfieffer-trained mare has won two of her 15 starts, but she should have bagged a few more than that. “She’s been a hard luck story for most of her career,’’ Pfieffer said. “She has only won two races but she should have five or six wins next to her name.

THE EVEREST: FANS SMILING AFTER BARRIER DRAW

ANALYSIS: WHO TO BACK IN THE EVEREST

“It’s frustrating because you’ve got a really nice horse that has had bad luck all preparation it’s either been bad barriers, bad tracks or bad rides. What happens is owners can lose patience (so) you have really got to take advantages of the opportunities when they do come.’’

BRAD DAVIDSON’S BEST BETS

BEST BETS: CAMBAGE (Race 4, No. 2)

Bolted in first-up at the provincials and then lost no admirers last start at Rosehill. Has to lump 62.5kg, which is not easy, but she has a class edge on this lot and appeals at $4.

NEXT BEST: TUMULTUOUS (Race 7, No. 10)

Put in two eye-catching trials and then the wide gate simply cost him victory first-up. His late splits were super and he should be able to sit much closer from the good draw. Hugh Bowman goes aboard too.

BEST VALUE: TO EXCESS (Race 6, No. 2)

Was very impressive in much weaker grade at Kembla two starts back and he franked that effort with a slashing second at Warwick Farm. He just needs to hold a spot midfield early to run really well at $5.50.

BEST EXOTIC

QUADDIE: 1st leg: 3,4,5,9. 2nd leg: 2,6,8,10. 3rd leg: 1,10, 12. 4th leg: 6,8,10,11.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

CHRIS WALLER has 14 runners engaged at Warwick Farm and has a host of strong chances across the program.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

HUGH BOWMAN has a full book of eight rides at Warwick Farm, including Tumultuous in Race 7.

SCROLL DOWN FOR SHAYNE O’CASS’S INSIDE MAIL

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Hugh Bowman is set for a big day with an excellent book of rides at Warwick Farm.

Hugh Bowman is set for a big day with an excellent book of rides at Warwick Farm.Source:AAP

Dixie Chick has some compelling numbers to take out the last race on the card, not only is she a winner fresh, she has raced especially well at home at Warwick Farm.

On top of that, Pfieffer has the daughter of Star Witness primed for a bold bid off the back of two impressive trials with Tye Angland in the saddle.

“Tye was happy with her and is eager to get on her first-up. She has drawn a bit awkwardly but 1100m up against her own sex is a good race to start the preparation of. If they put a bit of speed in the race then she will definitely being hitting the line late,’’ Pfieffer says.

Any black-type alongside Dixie Chick’s name would obviously boost her potential in the breeding barn, a fact that Pfeiffer is acutely aware of.

“I am more looking up in Brisbane for the summer series rather than going down to Melbourne but I suppose I’d better win a Saturday race with her first,’’ he said.

Dixie Chick’s main obstacle in Wednesday’s assignment is the Les Bridge-trained Zonk who has finished runner-up in her only two previous visits to Warwick Farm behind quality mares In Times Of War and White Moss respectively.

Dixie Chick has produced some of her best runs at Warwick Farm. Picture: Jenny Evans

Dixie Chick has produced some of her best runs at Warwick Farm. Picture: Jenny EvansSource:News Corp Australia

Meantime, trainer John Thompson believes Thewayweare can cope with lumping 60.5kg in the ATC Schweppes Hcp (2200m) at Warwick Farm.

The Kiwi-bred gelding will carry nine kilos more than one of his rivals, reflecting Thewayweare’s superior benchmark rating in the race.

Thewayweare won under the same weight over 2300m at Goulburn during a fruitful last campaign which added three wins in quick succession to his career tally of six.

The Proven Thoroughbreds gelding hit his best stride this time in with a brave neck second over the same course and distance as today’s assignment only with 3.5kgs less.

“He is a big one-paced stayer and now that he is fit and going well, he should be able to hold that form,’’ Thompson said. “He is a big boy, he’s about 17 hands, so he’ll handle (the weight) no dramas. He will just go forward again and make his own luck.’’

Thompson saddles-up the TAB Fixed Odds favourite Tutu ($3) in the ATC McGrath Estate Agents VIC Handicap (1400m) with the mare aiming for back-to-back wins.

Tutu thrashed her opposition by five lengths in a 1350m Wyong maiden on September 24.

“It is a step-up in grade but she has done well between runs, (the 1400m) is the perfect distance and I expect her to run well again,’’ Thompson said.

Tutu should have problem putting herself into a prominent position as is customary given that she has drawn barrier 4 on the nine-horse field.

Stablemate Waking Moment meanwhile kicks off her spring and summer campaign in the same race but is sure to improve on whatever she does here.

Thompson, fresh from a Hawkesbury treble on Sunday, could very well repeat the dose at Warwick Farm. The trainer made a compelling case for a Makeadane win at double-figure odds in an open ATC TAB.com.au (1600m).

“He ran well first-up but was disappointing second-up,’’ Thompson said. “We have put a tongue tie on him for (today), so hopefully that can turn his form around. He has won at Warwick Farm before over the mile and has got the stringer rider going on in Tye Angland.’’

Thompson has three runners in the ATC McGrath Estate Agents ACT Handicap (1100m); All Sassitude together with the royally-bred debutantes Caprice and Discreet Charm.

Discreet Charm is a daughter of So You Think and a half-sister to Chris Waller’s Spring Champion Stakes winner Vanbrugh who is now at stud in New Zealand. Caprice meanwhile is a half-sister to 2016.17 Hong Kong Horse of the Year, Australian-bred Rapper Dragon.

Thompson’s pick of the three is the stable recruit All Sassitude who has sent out all the right signals in her lead-up trials.

INSIDE MAIL with SHAYNE O’CASS

RACE 1 (1.25pm)

The market rightfully suggests that this a race-in-two between the debutants 4. Isaurian and 1. Eleazar both of whom have been extremely impressive in their respective trials. The home track advantage is with Ottoman’s brother Isaurian who has won two trials compared to Eleazar’s one. That may or may not be significant, time will tell. Clearly, either one could win, but if he stays at $2 or above, Isaurian is the bet. 3. Highly Influential is best of the remainder.

BETTING STRATEGY: ISAURIAN to win, exacta 4,1, quinella 1,4.

RACE 2 (2pm)

9. Ballet Baby is a daughter of Winx’s sire, Street Cry, out of a half sister to Takeover Target. She has always sent out signals that she is above average and while perhaps a shade disappointing on debut, she was tipped out straight away and has trialled well. 1. Savatiano ran creditably in the Widden and the Sweet Embrace and split Invader and Malahat at her only other run. Trialled well also and is equipped for better races than the midweeks.

BETTING STRATEGY: BALLET BABY to win, exacta 9 to beat 1, quinella 1,9.

RACE 3 (2.35pm)

2. Wine Bush is a wholly unreliable and costly horse that went up shorter than the two horses that finished ahead of him at Rosehill last start namely 4. Know How and 5. Ready For Success. That seems entirely down to the Waller/Bowman factor but it didn’t work last time for punters. Wine Bush should appreciate the 2200m today but he has lost 15 times in 16 starts and is a $3.50 favourite? Have to bet around him at those odds.

BETTING STRATEGY: Box trifecta 1,2,4,5.

RACE 4 (3.10pm)

John Thompson has 6. Tutu flying this preparation. She was building up to the win at Wyong last start but few would have expected her to be so utterly dominant. Thompson has found the perfect race for her to come to town and barrier three is a winning draw. She’s getting short enough at $3 because this is a typically open F & Ms race. 2. Cambage has come back in great nick while local 4. O’Reilly Cyrus is peaking.

BETTING STRATEGY: O’REILLY CYRUS each-way.

RACE 5 (3.45pm)

Best longshot all day is 2. Lookin’ At You. The Anthony and Edward Cummings trained gelding went up $26 TAB Fixed which is way overs for a horse with his C.V. Granted he is best at 2000m but he is a first-up winner at 1350m and he was never, ever asked to ‘go’ in his 735m trial. 3. Drachenfels has done little wrong up until now and looks well placed here. Ditto 6. Charming Lad who seems ‘overs’ at $16.

BETTING STRATEGY: LOOKIN’ AT YOU each-way, box quinella, 1,2,3,6, box trifecta 1,2,3,6.

RACE 6 (4.20pm)

Very competitive race coming up with a handful of chances so much so that 10. Beacon is unders at $2.50. Clearly he ticks all the boxes, but 6/4? Compare that to the $6.50 on offer about the X-factor galloper 8. invincible Quest who was awesome winning at home at Wyong first-up. Might be ready to deliver on the promise now. 2. To Excess should have won here nine days ago. 11. Radiant Choice has been trialling well.

BETTING STRATEGY: INVINCIBLE QUEST to win, duet 2,8.

RACE 7 (4.55pm)

10. Tumultuous was $19 first-up which was way over the odds. This time he is $2.80 which is way under the odds. It’s the Bowman/Waller factor that has made him two or three points shorter than he should be bearing in mind he has only won 2 from 16. He is the on top selection but he’s almost getting to a lay price! I didn’t have 6. Makedane in my top four selections when doing the form but trainer John Thompson made a really compelling case when we spoke to him yesterday.

BETTING STRATEGY: MAKEADANE each-way.

RACE 8 (5.30pm)

4. Dixie Chick has raced without luck throughout her career. She is rather tempo reliant and needs a lot of luck to go her way. Barrier 13 of 13 probably helps her out, she’ll get back and slingshot around the bend. Trialled well for this. 11. Zonk has had a boom on her from the start and fair enough too. She has been runner-up both runs at the Farm and the trial win was terrific. Well found at the odds now.

BETTING STRATEGY: DIXIE CHICK to win, quinella 4,11, exacta 4 to beat 11.

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